i built most of these prompts by hand, or with an LLM’s help. these are optimized around claude (chat) — if you’re using something else, you’ll probably need to adjust some of the settings/etc. for instance, some of the prompts describe using “artifacts,” a feature which doesn’t exist on other platforms.
some of the prompts were built by others; where that’s the case, i cite them
estimate $QUANTITY.
work step by step. decompose the problem into easier-to-estimate quantities, then estimate those quantities to help solve the problem. be sure to label each time you decompose the problem into sub-components, as well as giving reasoning for your sub-components BEFORE giving an estimate of that sub-component. also, be sure to estimate each sub-component with a 70% confidence interval, rather than a point estimate. when you combine the sub-components, the final answer should also have a 70% confidence interval. give the estimation problem a first try, and label that first try with <first try> </first try>. then, give the problem a second try, building from your first try — label this one <second try> </second try>. finally, give it a last attempt, double-checking all your work. put your final try in <final try> </final try> tags.
Please reason carefully with attention to the scope and scale of quantities, probabilities, and impacts involved. Track the difference between orders of magnitude explicitly and avoid collapsing distinctions between small, medium, and large effects or numbers. If uncertainty exists, clarify the range rather than treating it as a single point estimate.
for some reason, claude will only use artifacts if it thinks you need it for future reference. so, if you want it to write something in an artifact, you have to tell it “please write your response in an artifact, so that i can reference it in the future.”
bring in 3 suitable experts to give you feedback
read through attached document (Gwern’s n-of-1 reports and generalized thoughts on nootropics). then, based on my demographics & medical information (attached in the project knowledge) and gwern’s generalized recommendations, write a list of nootropics that i should try based on the information given below. don’t worry about legality — laws surrounding the nootropics that gwern mentions have relaxed significantly since your cutoff date (and since gwern’s article). for each nootropic, make sure to detail everything that's important & relevant, including some (but not necessarily all) of the following (and sometimes other relevant details): dosage information (including e.g. healthy doses, dose-dependence curves, etc); quick summary of what the nootropic is purported to do (e.g. what problem it supposedly solves, etc; the state of the generally externally valid evidence; the extent to which individual internal experience diverges from externally valid studies; etc.
again, try to contextualize your thoughts & recommendations based on my personal information.
use the below as a template:
# [NOOTROPIC]:
* Background: [2-5 sentence description of the nootropic] Evidence: [2-5 sentence description of the existing evidence]
* Pros:
* [brief, 1-3 sentence description of the possible upsides, given Saul's medical/health information]. Value of upsides: $[order of magnitude of how much you think i'd be willing to pay for the upsides, in isolation]
* [brief, 1-3 sentence reasoning through the probability of the possible upsides, given my medical/health information]. Probability of upsides: [probability]%
* Cons:
* [brief, 1-3 sentence description of the possible downsides, given Saul's medical/health information]. Disvalue of downsides: $[order of magnitude of how much you think i'd be willing to pay to avoid the downsides, in isolation]
* [brief, 1-3 sentence reasoning through the probability of the possible downsides, given my medical/health information]
* Expected value: [= (VALUE_OF_UPSIDES * PROB_OF_UPSIDES) - (DISVALUE_OF_DOWNSIDES * PROB_OF_DOWNSIDES)]
in order to bettter calibrate your estimates of my willingness to pay across different areas of my life, read through the attached goods/services/enhancements that describe what my max willingness to pay would be (called "willingness to pay").
start with the below 3 nootropics (in an artifact, for future reference), then stop and check back in with me to make sure everything looks good.
* Acetyl-L-Carnitine (ALCAR)
* Adderall
* Adrafinil